Kenya could attract up to $167 million in additional private investment and create about 36,000 direct jobs in its avocado and mango sectors over the next decade if targeted reforms remove constraints holding back investment, according to a new World Bank analysis.
The opportunity is heavily concentrated in avocados, which the World Bank estimates could attract about $160 million in incremental private investment, compared with roughly $7 million for mangoes. The analysis forms part of the World Bank Group’s Kenya Country Private Sector Diagnostic, which identifies sectors where policy changes could unlock private capital and employment. The report argues that Kenya has built a strong position in fruit production and exports but captures too little value beyond the farm gate.
Greater investment in aggregation, cold storage, processing, packaging, logistics and export infrastructure could allow farmers and businesses to earn more from the country’s fruit value chains.
Avocados already provide a substantial export business. World Bank trade data shows Kenya exported about 129.7 million kilograms of avocados in 2024, generating approximately $160.8 million.
The Netherlands, United Arab Emirates, Spain, France and Germany were among the leading markets. The bigger opportunity, however, lies in moving beyond exports of raw or minimally processed fruit.
For avocados, the World Bank recommends expanding fresh exports, including by taking advantage of Kenya’s counter-seasonal production window and established relationships in international markets. Mangoes face a deeper processing gap. The World Bank estimates that only around 10% of Kenya’s mango production is processed and about 3% is exported.
It sees room for private investors to establish or expand facilities producing mango pulp for Kenyan and regional juice manufacturers, while developing products suited to African markets.
The diagnostic also identifies practical constraints that could limit investment. Its recommendations include stronger farm-level quality systems, improved pest management and traceability, better packhouse operations, universal packhouse inspections and the deferral of import VAT on processing equipment to reduce investors’ upfront cash-flow burden. It also calls for progress on the Plant Protection Bill. The stakes are particularly high for avocado-producing counties such as Murang’a, where the sector is exposed to pest and post-harvest risks.
The report warns of the potential impact of the Persea mite on production, adding another challenge for farmers and exporters already dealing with quality, rejection and losses along the supply chain. The World Bank’s wider diagnostic estimates that reforms across the avocado and mango value chains, coastal tourism and medical consumables manufacturing could unlock as much as $1.5 billion in additional private investment and more than 80,000 direct jobs over the medium term.
For Kenya’s fruit industry, the investment case therefore extends beyond producing more avocados and mangoes. The larger opportunity is to build the infrastructure and processing capacity needed to retain more of the value generated from crops already grown at scale.