A look at Africa’s ability to shake off the worst of coronavirus pandemic, a ‘mystery’ that researchers are now seeking to understand

Researchers have intimated that the success of many African countries to shake off the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, however a mystery it is, gives the foundation in their study.

By Sam Abuya

When the first few cases of coronavirus infections were reported outside the epicentre, Wuhan in China, there were growing concerns, not only among experts but general populations, of how badly Africa would be hit by the pandemic once the novel virus landed in the continent. Many people saw a continent that would, literally, be brought to its knees due to its already weak healthcare system.

But how Africa has managed to shake off the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic remains a mystery which has attracted the eyes of many scientists across the world. They want to understand how a continent with one of the weakest and ‘ill-prepared’ health systems around the world was able curb the transmissions as witnessed in other parts of the world.

Almost nine months into the coronavirus pandemic which has seen more than 31 million people infected with at least more than 950,000 succumbing to the disease around the world, a good number of countries in Africa have faired significantly better compared to others around the globe. The reasons behind this have remained a mystery that has now attracted the attention of researchers with some already saying the ‘success’ of Africa in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic gives important lessons on how inherent biases have the power to distort scientific studies.

In a recent World Health Organization’s news briefing, Dr. Sam Agatre Okuonzi of the Arua Regional Referral Hospital in northern Uganda said: “The initial disease prediction models painted a very bleak picture of severe devastation of lives and economies in Africa. In Uganda, it was predicted that by September, there would be 600,000 cases of Covid-19 and 30,000 deaths. But the reality is starkly different.”

Uganda has so far recorded 7,064 COVID-19 cases, 70 deaths and many recoveries, according to a tally by the John Hopkins University. South Africa, on the other hand, which is the worst-hit country in Africa, has reported more than 665,000 positive cases and more than 16,000 deaths. These statistics translates to about 28 deaths in a population of 100,000 people compared to the 61 deaths per 100,000 people in America.

Much as quite a number of countries in the continent such as Ethiopia, Nigeria and Algeria have had to contend with big outbreaks of the disease, a majority of African countries have come out successful in containing the spread of the deadly virus which has literally brought huge economies and strong healthcare systems around the world down to their knees.

Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO’s regional director for Africa says the move of many African governments to restrict movements of people is one of the reasons why the coronavirus infections did not spread a lot in the continent.

“Governments took early, quite drastic action through the lockdowns at great cost to their economies,” Moeti said in the briefing. “This has bought us some time.”

She, however, took note of the concerns that there might be a second wave of infections that African countries need to worry about as the movement restrictions are lifted or eased and countries slowly returning to normalcy.

Moeti says African countries need to put more emphasis on preparedness in case of any second wave of infections happens. On the other hand, scientists are working round the clock to understand the different thing that Africa did and got it right in curbing the spread of the novel virus in the pandemic’s first wave.

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Assistant Scientist and modelling expert Shaun Truelove says there is a possibility that some people in Africa might have what he calls “cross-reactive immunities” having been more exposed to other coronaviruses. However, there is not registered evidence of that theory yet. Francisca Mutapi, a professor of global health infection and immunity at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, is currently doing her research in Zimbabwe to examine the immunity levels to other six coronaviruses.

According to Mutapa, apart from demographics, the lifestyle and culture of the African people could also have played a role as far as the spread of the infections is concerned. “One of the factors about the virus is it doesn’t transmit very well outdoors,” she said. “Africa has a significant population that is rural and spends a lot of time outdoors. That is one of the factors that we have found from our own work.” While reiterating that research has indicated that the above 65-year-olds are at a more risk of being affected by the virus, Mutapa said this demographic only account for at least 3 percent of the population in most African countries.

Africa Global News Publication