The World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says the global reorganisation of supply chains has created an unusual opening for African countries to attract manufacturing, process more of their natural resources and secure a larger role in international trade.
Companies are reducing their dependence on individual countries and suppliers after the COVID-19 pandemic, trade disputes, wars and shipping disruptions exposed the risks of highly concentrated production networks. Okonjo-Iweala argues that Africa can benefit as businesses search for additional sourcing and manufacturing locations, but only if governments improve infrastructure, governance and the cost of moving goods across borders.
The opportunity, according to the WTO, is particularly clear in critical minerals. Africa holds large deposits of cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, graphite, nickel, platinum and rare earth elements required for electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy systems, digital infrastructure and advanced defence technologies.
Speaking recently at the United Nations, Okonjo-Iweala described rising mineral demand as a potentially once-in-a-generation opportunity for resource-rich developing countries. She warned that the same demand could deepen conflict and inequality if African economies remain confined to mining and exporting unprocessed commodities while higher-value processing, technology and manufacturing take place elsewhere.
Africa is estimated to hold about 30 per cent of global critical mineral reserves, yet captures less than 5 per cent of the associated value addition. WTO figures previously showed that the continent accounted for about 12 per cent of global critical mineral exports but only 3.8 per cent of processed mineral exports.
That gap explains why the WTO chief is pressing African governments to build regional value chains rather than compete to export the same raw materials. A country with lithium deposits may not have the capital, electricity, technical expertise and market size required to manufacture complete batteries independently. It could, however, specialise in one stage of a regional production chain involving mineral processing, battery components, vehicle assembly and recycling across several countries.
The African Continental Free Trade Area provides the legal and commercial framework for that approach by creating a larger market for goods produced across national borders. In practice, however, African businesses still face expensive transport, inconsistent customs procedures, unreliable electricity and overlapping regulations that weaken the continent’s competitiveness. Okonjo-Iweala has previously estimated that trade costs faced by African economies are about 50 per cent higher than those in developed countries. For Nigerian companies, she said exports to other African markets faced costs equivalent to a tariff of about 460 per cent, compared with roughly 210 per cent when exporting outside the continent.
Africa’s internal trade also remains limited. Intra-African commerce is commonly estimated at between 16 and 20 per cent of the continent’s total trade, far below the levels achieved in Europe and Asia. Okonjo-Iweala has argued that African economies cannot build large industrial markets while continuing to trade so little with one another. Several regional initiatives are beginning to address the problem.
The Southern African Development Community launched a five-year programme in June covering the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It aims to develop responsible regional value chains for energy-transition minerals and retain more processing, employment and income within Southern Africa. The wider investment climate remains difficult. Global foreign direct investment rose by 6 per cent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, but the recovery was heavily concentrated in a small number of economies and sectors.
The world’s 20 largest investment destinations received more than 80 per cent of global FDI, while developing economies recorded growth of only 2 per cent. Africa attracted approximately $70 billion. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, energy technologies and critical minerals are attracting an increasing share of international capital. This strengthens Africa’s case because the continent supplies many of the materials required by those industries. It also raises the level of competition as governments in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East improve incentives, industrial zones and infrastructure to attract the same investors.
The WTO chief has also called on Nigeria and other African economies to mobilise more domestic capital. Foreign investment remains important, but geopolitical uncertainty, higher borrowing costs and increased competition mean African countries cannot assume that external financing will meet their industrial needs. Domestic pension funds, banks, insurance companies, sovereign funds and private investors could provide part of the long-term capital required for power generation, industrial parks, railways, processing plants and logistics facilities.
Stronger domestic participation may also reassure international investors that local businesses have confidence in the same projects. The WTO and European Investment Bank agreed in March to support investment reforms and project preparation in selected African countries. The initiative will initially target strategic sectors including critical minerals, digital technology, health and the green transition. The EIB has committed up to approximately $350 million for mature projects during the first phase, with the potential to mobilise close to $1.2 billion in total investment.
The WTO expects merchandise trade growth to slow from 4.6 per cent in 2025 to 1.9 per cent in 2026, with geopolitical conflict, energy prices and tariff uncertainty weighing on the outlook. Africa’s merchandise exports are projected to grow by only 1.2 per cent this year, even as its imports rise by 3.2 per cent. That imbalance points to the central problem Okonjo-Iweala wants African governments to confront.
The continent continues to buy growing volumes of manufactured products while supplying much of the raw material used to produce them. The current shift in supply chains gives Africa an entry point, but investors will not relocate production out of goodwill. They will go where infrastructure works, rules are stable and regional markets can be served efficiently. Africa’s mineral wealth has already secured its place in the global energy transition. The economic prize lies in ensuring that processing plants, technologies, skilled jobs and African-owned suppliers grow around those resources.