The COVID-19 Economic Effects on Africa
By Sam Abuya
The wave of coronavirus pandemic, now commonly referred to as COVID-19, has been sweeping throughout the world and has not spared Africa, either. The continent of Africa, however in a low scale compared to others from around the world, has also felt the impact of this deadly and highly contagious virus that had, as of May 8, 2020, claimed more than 270,000 lives around the globe and left at least 3,800,000 others infected. More than 1,200,000 have so far recovered from the virus.
The COVID-19 pandemic has revived the memories of the 1918 Spanish flu which lasted for at least two years and by the time the dust settled, several economies, even those from superpowers were on their knees. This, many have said, could be the case with coronavirus pandemic, if the trends are anything to go by.
In Africa alone, more than 54,000 positive cases of coronavirus had been registered by the time we were going to press with the virus killing at least more than 2,000 people and in excess of 18,000 others managing to recover.
From the economic front, it is actually the measures that the various governments, including those from Africa, have put in place that are hugely hurting their economies. The situation becomes even more hard for Africa given the fact that most economies in the continent were not doing well even before the COVID-19 struck.
Striking a balance between hurting the economies and cushioning the people against this highly contagious coronavirus has been one of the biggest tests that African governments have had to make.
Slowed down economic growth
Before the COVIOD-19 crisis happened, Africa’s 2020 economic growth was projected to be at 3.9 percent. According to economic pundits, if the crisis is contained globally and in the continent, the estimated growth will fall to 0.4 percent and, in the event that the pandemic is not controlled, then things will be even more thick with the estimated growth dropping to -3.9 percent.
A strong agricultural season gone wrong and the struggling informal sector
According to the World Food Programme analysis, 2019/2020 had been such a strong season for West and Central Africa in terms of agriculture. The regions had posted more than average productions especially for cereals, something which is, certainly, great as far as food security goes. But in spite of all that, the consumer price index is currently at a record high since the year 2008 within the Monetary Union of West Africa region.
The COVID-19 is set to affect food supply in many ways. In Kenya, for example, day labourers are highly affected thanks to the containment measured announced and implemented by the country’s government. In the East African nation, the informal sector accounts for a whopping 83.6 percent of the country’s entire workforce. If, this population is not working, or at least a majority of them are not working, then they will definitely strain the economy.
Farmers in Zambia in 2008, for example, lost a lot of money when the military was deployed to enforce and oversee closure of markets during the then outbreak of cholera. The farmers couldn’t sell their fresh produce from their farms. The coronavirus crisis has brought back such scenarios again across the continent thanks to the lockdowns sanctioned by the various governments.
Burkina Faso, the first country to suffer a coronavirus fatality in Africa, is facing what many have termed as “a new kind of threat to a country wracked by war that displaced around 700,000 people last year”. A majority of these displaced people have now found themselves between a rock and a hard place. They are lacking food, proper shelter and other necessities while, at the same time, undergoing unimaginable emotional and physical strain. All these factors combined, expose them to the COVID-19 pandemic even the more.
Economic responses by the various governments
Various countries across the continent are putting in place different social safety net policies to cushion their people, especially, the most vulnerable from the COVID-19 economic effects. Uganda, for example, has allowed business entities to reschedule their social security contributions. On the other hand, Namibia is giving out what they are calling emergency income grant to those people who have lost their jobs during this pandemic.
On its part, the Central Bank of West Africa States has scrapped off some transaction fees.
In Zimbabwe’s capital Harare, streets were almost deserted as citizens there heeded to their government’s calls to stay indoors, a complete opposite to what was witnessed in the neighbouring South Africa where people defied the directive.
In East Africa, Kenya announced a tax relief and several government officials, led by the country’s president and his deputy president, took pay cuts.
Thokozile Ruzvidzo, Director of the Gender, Poverty and Social Policy Division of the Economic Commission for Africa says; “As engines and drivers of economic growth, cities face considerable risks in light of COVID-19 with implications for the continent’s resilience to the pandemic”.
Major cities across Africa are home to an estimated 600 million people, and are directly accountable for almost 50 percent of the region’s GDP. These are the same places where job losses have massively been registered owing to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic.
These cities also lead in terms of consumption rates thanks to their huge middle class, this consumption is, however, expected to suffer a sharp decline due to the coronavirus crisis.
In conclusion, so far, the COVID-19 pandemic economic effects on Africa can be summed up as job loss and close of businesses, revenues loss for both individuals and governments, a sharp fall in productivity and slowed down economic growth.
