Aliko Dangote has shifted the centre of East Africa’s proposed mega refinery debate from Tanzania to Kenya, saying he now leans toward building the facility in Mombasa because of the port city’s deeper harbour, stronger infrastructure, and larger consumer market.
The proposed refinery, estimated to cost between $15 billion and $17 billion, would process about 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, matching the scale of Dangote’s refinery in Lagos, Nigeria, the world’s largest single-train refinery. Dangote told the Financial Times that Mombasa offers stronger commercial logic than Tanzania’s Tanga port, although the final decision would depend on support from President William Ruto’s administration.
“I’m leaning more towards Mombasa because Mombasa has a much larger, deeper port,” Dangote said, adding that Kenya’s larger economy and higher fuel consumption make it a more attractive market for the project.
The shift comes only weeks after East African leaders publicly discussed a joint regional refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, during an infrastructure financing summit in Nairobi. President Ruto had presented the project as a regional industrialisation initiative that would serve Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo by processing crude from across the region.
That announcement quickly created diplomatic discomfort in Tanzania. President Samia Suluhu Hassan publicly said she had questioned Ruto over why a refinery had been announced for Tanga without her knowledge or approval, placing the proposal under immediate political pressure. Dangote’s latest preference for Mombasa now appears to move the project away from that controversy and toward a port city that already sits at the centre of Kenya’s fuel import and logistics system.
East Africa’s need for refining capacity is clear. The region imports nearly all of its refined petroleum products, much of it from the Middle East, leaving economies exposed to supply shocks, freight costs, currency pressure, and sudden fuel price movements. A large refinery within the region could reduce that dependence while supporting petrochemicals, fertiliser production, plastics, logistics, and industrial manufacturing.
For Kenya, the project would carry major economic and strategic weight. Mombasa already serves as the main maritime gateway for Kenya and several landlocked neighbours, with fuel imports moving inland through established transport and pipeline networks. A refinery of this scale would strengthen Kenya’s position as an energy and logistics hub while giving Nairobi a stronger role in shaping regional fuel supply.
The project would also deepen Dangote’s growing influence over Africa’s downstream oil sector. His Lagos refinery, which processes 650,000 barrels per day, has already changed Nigeria’s fuel supply equation and started exporting petroleum products beyond the country. Dangote has also announced plans to expand the Lagos facility to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move that would place it among the largest refining operations globally.
Still, the East African plan will require more than commercial enthusiasm. Dangote has made clear that government backing will matter, including land, financing support, regional coordination, and protection from cheaper imported fuel from markets such as Russia and India. Without that policy support, a refinery of this size could struggle to compete against established global suppliers.
The political dimension may prove just as important as the economics. A refinery originally framed as a joint regional project has already exposed gaps in consultation among East African governments. If Kenya becomes the preferred host, Nairobi will need to manage both the commercial opportunity and the regional sensitivities created by the shift away from Tanzania.
Dangote’s change of direction has turned a proposed refinery into a test of East Africa’s industrial coordination. The region has the demand, the crude supply ambitions, and the market pressure to justify local refining. What remains uncertain is whether its governments can align quickly enough to turn a high-profile proposal into infrastructure that changes how the region powers its economies.
